The 2026 Republican primaries in Idaho are already shaping up to be a defining moment for the future of the state’s conservative movement. Voters are more informed, more energized, and more unwilling than ever to tolerate weak Republicans who vote like Democrats.
If these lawmakers think they’ll skate through without a challenge, they’re in for a rude awakening. Here are the top five most vulnerable Republicans heading into 2026:
1. Rep. Lori McCann (R-Lewiston)
McCann is a walking advertisement for why Republican unity matters. In 2024, two conservative challengers split the vote and allowed this Democrat-aligned Republican to cling to her seat. Since then, she’s continued to vote like a blue-state liberal—including a now-infamous vote to protect welfare benefits for illegal immigrants. If conservatives can consolidate in 2026, this seat is ripe for the flipping.
2. Sen. Jim Guthrie (R-McCammon)
Longtime incumbent Jim Guthrie has a record that should make any conservative cringe. He’s blocked numerous conservative bills in committee and was one of the loudest voices opposing a Senate proposal to cut welfare benefits for illegals—going so far as to defend the handouts on the floor. If retired military officer David Worley jumps in, this one could be a landslide.
3. Rep. Stefanie Mickelsen (R-Idaho Falls)
Mickelsen has caught the ire of grassroots conservatives for months. Her voting record leans soft on immigration enforcement, and her public advocacy for illegal immigrants has only made things worse. She represents a region that should be a conservative stronghold, but Eastern Idaho often struggles to recruit high-caliber candidates. Unless that changes, she may hang on—but just barely.
4. Rep. Rick Cheatum (R-Pocatello)
District 28 deserves better. For what appears to be a red district, Cheatum sure votes purple. He’s a big spender who routinely crosses the aisle to back Democrat priorities. Conservative challenger James Lamborn is already in the race, working hard to build name ID and raise money after a tough three-way loss in 2024. In a head-to-head matchup, Lamborn’s odds look much better—and Cheatum’s days may be numbered.
5. Rep. Rod Furniss (R-Rigby)
If there were an award for Most Obnoxious Legislator, Furniss would be a front-runner. He narrowly beat conservative firebrand Karey Hanks in 2024, but that was before he cast a damaging vote to keep welfare flowing to illegal immigrants. (Noticing a trend here?) He’s a reliable yes vote for bloated budgets and bigger government. If the Legislature weren’t as conservative as it is, Furniss would be even worse.
Honorable Mention: Rep. Judy Boyle (R-Midvale)
A Capitol veteran with deep ties and a long resume, Boyle seems safe on the surface. But dig a little deeper and you’ll find a vote supporting a path to amnesty—a decision that could come back to haunt her. Conservative newcomer Greg Diacogiannis is joining the race soon. If he can raise the money to get his message out, this one could turn into the upset of the year.
One reply on “5 Most Vulnerable GOP Lawmakers Ahead of 2026 Primary”
You might want to include a few non-veteran incumbents on your list. I’d submit John Shirts, who in his first session voted for over $1.45 BILLION over and above maintenance spending, only found his NO button 20 times out of over 440 votes, and was put forward last year by your honorable mention Judy Boyle. That said, your Top Five definitely deserve to be retired!