Earlier this week, I shared my top 5 most vulnerable lawmakers ahead of the 2026 primary election here in Idaho.
Then I added one I missed. Whoops!
Now, let’s flip the script and review the safest members.
Keep in mind this is how I see things, not how I want them to be. Were I king, some of these folks would have lost a long time ago.
To the list!
Sen. Tammy Nichols, R-Middleton
Establishment types have been trying to unseat her since she took office, and they have failed every single time. Their 2024 effort was spectacularly awful, as the governor and his cronies spent roughly $300,000 to beat Nichols – and she won by a larger margin than she did in 2022. Of course, Lori Bishop’s status as a property-tax-raising, Democrat-supporting, abortion-supporting challenger didn’t help anything. (Props to John Heida over at Stop Idaho RINOs for uncovering the devastating oppo on Bishop.)
And while Nichols’ move to rescue a bill that granted Idaho Power immunity from lawsuits if its lines start a fire might give District 10 voters some pause, Nichols will cruise to re-election in 2026.
Rep. Heather Scott
Rep. Heather Scott is a Capitol veteran and considered one of the leading conservatives in the Idaho House. She’s changed her approach as of late and is less vocal than she once was. But the establishment knows it cannot beat her. In fact, it’s my theory the redistricting commission put her in District 2 to open a seat for a more moderate lawmaker in District 1.
Her pride flag bill was a total disaster because it lacked teeth, but her district adores her and will ignore that blunder at election time – if someone is even dumb enough to challenge her.
Sen. Kelly Anthon
Here’s where things get tough for me. Anthon is a moderate cut from the same cloth as Congressman Mike Simpson, former Senate Pro Tem Brent Hill, and former Senate Majority Leader Bart Davis, though Anthon is far more cunning than the aforementioned politicians. He’s not “Based,” as some claim he is, and he never will be. Yet, he’s a perfect fit for his district and region, which are trending purple. My suspicion is that Anthon will have a political career as long as he wants one, and there’s little anyone can do about that.
Sen. Christy Zito
Ah, the matriarch of Idaho’s liberty movement. I remember when then-unknown Christy Zito challenged and upset longtime lawmaker Rich Wills back in 2016. What a race that was. Wills had drawered a bill to stop lawmakers from accepting gifts and trips, and Zito nailed him on it. The Wills family still hasn’t forgiven me for my work to highlight Wills’ actions there.
Unlike the previous three names on this list, Zito will likely draw a challenger. I’ve heard liberal Republican Geoff Schroeder might make a comeback, but I expect that to do as well as Will Smith’s latest rap album. Zito will smoke anyone, and her presence on the ballot will help first-term Reps. Faye Thompson and Rob Beiswenger.
Rep. Brent Crane
This name will surely anger some social media screamers. But tweets don’t move votes. Rep. Brent Crane is a staple in Idaho politics, and he has the pedigree and resources to win almost any race. Crane is a man without an obvious tribe in Idaho politics. He is neither a Moyle Loyalist nor a freedom guy. But that really doesn’t matter. There is a reason he usually runs unopposed.
Honorable mention: Sen. Van Burtenshaw
You don’t know Van Burtenshaw. No one does. He keeps a low profile and stays winning. He rarely casts spectacularly bad votes like Sen. Treg Bernt or Sen. Julie VanOrden, but he certainly is a big-government Republican. He has vanquished a number of more conservative challengers, and his winning record likely means he won’t face a foe in 2026.